Latest analysis

The 4% Rule at CAPE 40: What 1,509 Retirements Since 1871 Show, and the TIPS Alternative

A 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal from a 60/40 portfolio lasted 30 years in 96.8% of 1,509 monthly starts since 1871, and every failure began between 1964 and 1969. The first ten years of returns explain 75% of the outcome. No finished retirement began at today's CAPE of 40.6, but at 25 September 2026 real yields a 30-year TIPS ladder pays about 5% a year with no market risk.

Sep 28, 202613 min read

Market Insights

Japanese Government Bonds at 3%: Who Buys Japan’s Debt After the BOJ

The 10-year JGB closed at 3.07% on 24 September 2026, the highest since 1996, while the BOJ's policy rate is 1.25%. The Bank still holds 47.9% of JGBs and is shrinking that stake, and a 10-year Treasury hedged into yen now yields 2.30%, below the JGB, as it has every day since June 2022.

Sep 25, 202616 min read

Market Insights

Equity Risk Premium: Stocks Now Yield Less Than Real Treasuries on CAPE

On Shiller's CAPE, the S&P 500's earnings yield (2.44%) fell below the 10-year TIPS real yield (2.85%) on 24 September 2026, the first negative gap since at least 2003; on FactSet's forward P/E the gap is still about 2.4 points, roughly half its ten-year norm. Nearly all of the squeeze since 2021 came from higher real yields, not higher valuations.

Sep 25, 202613 min read

Market Insights

From 211% a Year to 1.7% a Month: How Milei Rebuilt Argentina’s Economy — and What Comes Next

In December 2023 Argentine prices rose 25.5% in a single month. In August 2026 they rose 1.7%. Two consecutive years of fiscal surplus, three rating upgrades between May and July, record oil output and a trade surplus five times larger than a year earlier took country risk from roughly 1,900 basis points to about 400 at its July low. The bond market has paid for most of that rebuild. Argentine growth — wages, consumption, earnings — has not been repriced yet, and that is the half still available.

Sep 25, 202616 min read

Investment Strategies & Instruments

Index Funds vs Active Management: What 25 Years of Scorecards Actually Show

Over the 20 years to June 2026, 92.6% of US large-cap active funds trailed the S&P 500 after fees, and only about 51 of 690 both survived and beat it. The harder problem is picking them in advance: five-year persistence among winners was no better than chance.

Sep 24, 202615 min read

Market Insights

The 10-Year Treasury at 5%: The Bond Market Isn’t Pricing Inflation

The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.01% on 16 and 18 September 2026, the highest since July 2007, after the Fed's first hike in more than three years. Since 1 May the whole rise has been in real yields: breakeven inflation fell from 2.48% to 2.33%, while consumers now expect 4.6% inflation next year.

Sep 23, 202610 min read

Risk Management & Macroeconomics

Bear Markets Since 1950: Depth, Duration, and When You Actually Recovered

The S&P 500 has had eleven bear markets since 1950. The median one took 24.5 months to regain its previous peak in price terms — but price ignores dividends and inflation. Count both, and the 2000 peak was not recovered until May 2013: one drawdown of nearly thirteen years, not two separate crashes.

Sep 20, 202612 min read

Investor Mindset & Financial Education

Behavioral Finance: Six Biases, and What Each One Actually Costs

Six biases measured on real accounts: trading frequency cost the most active US households 7.1 points a year, the disposition effect 3.4, switching holdings 3.2, and fund timing 1.2. The numbers are real, they come from different samples and decades, and adding them together — as most articles do — produces nonsense.

Sep 18, 202612 min read

Alternative Assets & Financial Technology

Python Backtesting Libraries in 2026: What the Rankings Get Wrong

Backtrader tops almost every 2026 ranking of Python backtesting libraries. Its last commit was in April 2023. Here is what the registries say about all six, and the licence question nobody mentions.

Sep 17, 202610 min read

Risk Management & Macroeconomics

The Kelly Criterion, and Why Nobody Runs Full Kelly

The Kelly criterion says bet 10% per trade on a 55/45 edge — the growth-optimal fraction. Simulated over 200 trades, that same fraction produces a 50% peak-to-trough drawdown in 93% of runs, and ends below half the starting capital once in ten. Half Kelly keeps three-quarters of the growth and a fraction of the pain.

Sep 15, 202610 min read

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