GoldGLD377.91 down -3.94%
S&P 500SPY765.61 down -0.74%
Russell 2000IWM280.02 down -0.69%
Dow JonesDIA514.02 down -0.67%
20+Y TreasuriesTLT78.62 down -0.88%
BitcoinBTC84,313 up +1.10%
Nasdaq 100QQQ736.53 down -1.07%

As of Sep 29, 09:05 ET Data by Finnhub

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Investment Strategies & Instruments

The 4% Rule at CAPE 40: What 1,509 Retirements Since 1871 Show, and the TIPS Alternative

A 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal from a 60/40 portfolio lasted 30 years in 96.8% of 1,509 monthly starts since 1871, and every failure began between 1964 and 1969. The first ten years of returns explain 75% of the outcome. No finished retirement began at today's CAPE of 40.6, but at 25 September 2026 real yields a 30-year TIPS ladder pays about 5% a year with no market risk.

Sep 28, 202613 min read

Market Insights

Japanese Government Bonds at 3%: Who Buys Japan’s Debt After the BOJ

Sep 25, 202616 min read

Market Insights

Equity Risk Premium: Stocks Now Yield Less Than Real Treasuries on CAPE

Sep 25, 202613 min read

Market Insights

From 211% a Year to 1.7% a Month: How Milei Rebuilt Argentina’s Economy — and What Comes Next

Sep 25, 202616 min read

Investment Strategies & Instruments

Index Funds vs Active Management: What 25 Years of Scorecards Actually Show

Sep 24, 202615 min read

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Market Insights

The 10-Year Treasury at 5%: The Bond Market Isn’t Pricing Inflation

The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.01% on 16 and 18 September 2026, the highest since July 2007, after the Fed's first hike in more than three years. Since 1 May the whole rise has been in real yields: breakeven inflation fell from 2.48% to 2.33%, while consumers now expect 4.6% inflation next year.

Sep 23, 202610 min read

Risk Management & Macroeconomics

Bear Markets Since 1950: Depth, Duration, and When You Actually Recovered

The S&P 500 has had eleven bear markets since 1950. The median one took 24.5 months to regain its previous peak in price terms — but price ignores dividends and inflation. Count both, and the 2000 peak was not recovered until May 2013: one drawdown of nearly thirteen years, not two separate crashes.

Sep 20, 202612 min read

Investor Mindset & Financial Education

Behavioral Finance: Six Biases, and What Each One Actually Costs

Six biases measured on real accounts: trading frequency cost the most active US households 7.1 points a year, the disposition effect 3.4, switching holdings 3.2, and fund timing 1.2. The numbers are real, they come from different samples and decades, and adding them together — as most articles do — produces nonsense.

Sep 18, 202612 min read

Alternative Assets & Financial Technology

Python Backtesting Libraries in 2026: What the Rankings Get Wrong

Backtrader tops almost every 2026 ranking of Python backtesting libraries. Its last commit was in April 2023. Here is what the registries say about all six, and the licence question nobody mentions.

Sep 17, 202610 min read

Risk Management & Macroeconomics

The Kelly Criterion, and Why Nobody Runs Full Kelly

The Kelly criterion says bet 10% per trade on a 55/45 edge — the growth-optimal fraction. Simulated over 200 trades, that same fraction produces a 50% peak-to-trough drawdown in 93% of runs, and ends below half the starting capital once in ten. Half Kelly keeps three-quarters of the growth and a fraction of the pain.

Sep 15, 202610 min read

Investment Strategies & Instruments

Compound Interest: How Much of the Final Sum Was Ever Yours

Run $10,000 plus $500 a month at 7% for 40 years and the calculator shows $1.48 million. Only 17% of that — $250,000 — is money you actually put in. The other 83% is growth compounding on growth, and by the final decade it does nearly all the work.

Sep 14, 20268 min read

Risk Management & Macroeconomics

Portfolio Hedging Strategies: What Each One Costs

A hedge is insurance with a running premium, not a strategy. Rolling put protection on the S&P 500 has compounded at 6.64% a year since 1986, while simply holding 65% equities and 35% Treasury bills beat it by 0.6% a year with lower risk. What each instrument actually costs.

Sep 11, 202612 min read

Investment Strategies & Instruments

How Often Should You Rebalance Your Portfolio? What the Evidence Says

Rebalance about once a year, and only past a five-point drift. Rebalancing keeps risk at target; it does not reliably add return. What the research finds, what drift costs in drawdown, and how to do it without realising a gain.

Sep 10, 202610 min read

Risk Management & Macroeconomics

Why Bond Yields Rise When Central Banks Cut Rates

The Federal Reserve is holding at 3.50%-3.75% while the US 10-year Treasury sits near 4.8% and the 30-year is at levels last seen in 2007. The policy rate and the bond market are two different prices set by two different mechanisms, and in 2026 they are moving apart. What duration and the term premium actually mean for a portfolio.

Sep 9, 202613 min read

Explore by topic

17 articles Investment Strategies & Instruments Discover the most effective methods and vehicles for growing your wealth. From AI-focused and sustainable ETFs to REITs,… 9 articles Risk Management & Macroeconomics Learn how to protect your capital and navigate uncertain economic environments. This section addresses portfolio hedging, risk management… 8 articles Alternative Assets & Financial Technology Explore the cutting edge of modern finance. This section covers emerging and disruptive asset classes — including cryptocurrencies,… 8 articles Market Insights Market analysis tied to a moment: monthly reviews, summits, elections and commodity moves, with what each one does… 7 articles Investor Mindset & Financial Education Build the knowledge and mindset needed to become a confident, successful investor. From understanding how emotions influence financial…

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