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Four errors, each measured on the same data: look-ahead turned a 200-day moving-average rule from 9.4% a year into 20.9%; today's S&P 500 members beat the real equal-weight fund by 6.3 points a year since 2004; 10 bp a trade sank a 45-trade-a-year rule; and the best of 355 moving-average pairs ranked 322nd out of sample.
Lula won Brazil’s runoff with 51.79%. By Monday morning Ibovespa futures fell as much as 19.85%, the dollar fixing rose 11% and B3 halted share trading.
US stocks split as Brent settled at $116.72 and AI financing costs came into focus, while PHP2Shell, a Node.js RCE and the eMudhra certificate compromise exposed another cost of the AI economy.
TRIX is the daily change of a price smoothed three times. On the S&P 500 since 1954, the 15-day TRIX lagged 21 trading days on average and crossed zero a third as often as a same-lag average, but no TRIX rule beat buy-and-hold on return, nor a same-exposure mix after 1992.
On the S&P 500 from 1954 to 2026, with costs and next-day execution, none of four common indicator rules or 90 variants of them beat buy-and-hold on return after 1992. MACD and TRIX lost to a same-exposure stock-and-bill mix in both periods; the 200-day average kept a better Sharpe ratio, not a return edge.
In the papers that made them famous, risk parity beat 60/40 and volatility timing raised the market's Sharpe ratio by a quarter. From 1965 to 2026, risk parity trailed 60/40 (Sharpe 0.35 against 0.45) and lost 28% in 2022. Volatility targeting cut the 2007–09 loss from 50% to 30%, but its Sharpe gain did not last.
Since 1953 the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread has inverted nine times. Seven inversions were followed by a recession 5 to 16 months later. Two were not: 1966, and the record 2022–2024 inversion, which has not been followed by a recession the NBER has dated. The signal says little about timing, and less about stocks.
From 1928 to 2025 the S&P 500 averaged 11.85% a year but compounded at 10.02%. The gap, roughly half the variance of returns, is volatility drag. It is why about two in three simulated 30-year histories fall short of an average-return projection, and why a simulated 3x daily fund lost 52% from 2000 to 2007 while the index gained 12%.
A 10-month moving-average rule on the S&P 500 returned 10.3% a year since 1934 against 11.2% for buy-and-hold, but its worst fall was 26% instead of 51%. It beat holding in only 21 of 92 years, and three-quarters of its exits were followed by a re-entry at a higher price.
Real yields explained about a quarter of gold's monthly moves in 2003–2021 and about a sixth since, and the link has barely weakened. Yet the same relationship, applied to 2022–2026, implies a 13% fall in gold; it rose 136%. Gold also cushioned only two of the last four equity bear markets.
